Natural Gas Supply

AmericanOilman.com -- view weekly Natural Gas Storage report. Weekly updates are provided along with an excellent historal price data on a week by week basis.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage -- U.S. government site providing the weekly updates on natural gas storage. The weekly reports are typically released on Thursday at 10:30 AM ET.

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Yahoo future chain -- the natural gas future contracts that UNG attempts to track.

Bloomberg Energy News -- energy trading news story headlines with lots of rationalization attempting to explain energy price moves after the fact.

Bloombery Energy Price quote -- spot prices for New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas and other energy products.

Backwardation and contango -- for derivative products like UNG and USO, backwardation and contango can have very significant impacts on price when UNG/USO futures positions are rolled forward each month.

Backwardation (sometimes incorrectly referred to as "backwardization") is a futures market term: it means a downward sloping forward curve (as in an inverted yield curve): one says that the forward curve is "in backwardation" (or sometimes: "backwardated"). Formally, it is the situation where, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the spot price, or a far future delivery price lower than a nearer future delivery. The opposite market condition to backwardation is known as contango. [rl wikipedia backwardation]

A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity which has a cost of carry . Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible (e.g. gold). Markets for non-perishable goods may also exist in a state of contango. For example crude oil prices in 2006 have routinely been in a state of contango. The contango should not exceed the cost of carry, because producers and consumers can compare the futures contract price against the spot price plus storage, and choose the better one. Arbitrageurs can sell one and buy the other for a risk-free profit too (see rational pricing – futures). [rl wikipedia contango]

Weather Tracking -- use these links to get tropical storm and weather updates before they hit the major news wires!!

Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery -- view grapical loops of current weather features in the Atlantic hurricane zones. Counter clockwise swirls are worth watching during hurricane season. Discuss interesting areas at the Weather Underground (link below).

National Hurricane Center -- the official source for Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico forecasts. Click on "Tropical Weather Discussion" for the tropical weather discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

Weather Underground -- great links to the latest information on current tropical storms. Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog is a very good place to catch the latest storm news and cutting edge forecasts. Create an account on Dr. Master's blog and post your tropical storm related questions. This blog is very active during storm season and often identifies new problem areas likely to produce tropical depression or tropical storm before the National Hurricane Center.

Weather - todays (and 10 days) forecast -- select the daily highs or the daily lows for today and up to the next 10 days for continental USA (use the selection box below the map to move to the next day or future day or night.

Weather - departures from normal -- view the departures from highs or from lows for the continental USA. When it is hot air conditioning loads increases natural gas consumption. Likewise cool temperatures increase natural gas usage for home heating.

Wind Sheer -- view current Caribbean wind sheer. Tropical storms do not form in areas of high wind shear. Wind shear is frequently discussed at Dr. Master's Weather Underground blog. More on wind sheer at Wikipedia here.

Saharan Air Layer Analysis -- view the current Saharan dust density over the Altantic ocean. Saharan dust tends to cool the underlying ocean and is believed to supress the formation of tropical storms. More on the Saharan Air Layer at Wikipedia here.

Wikipedia on Tropical Cyclones -- use Wikipedia to get more background information on the development of tropical storm systems...

A tropical cyclone is a meteorological term for a storm system characterized by a low pressure system center and thunderstorms that produces strong wind and flooding rain. A tropical cyclone feeds on the heat released when moist air rises and the water vapor it contains condenses. They are fueled by a different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters, European windstorms, and polar lows, leading to their classification as "warm core" storm systems.

The adjective "tropical" refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively in tropical regions of the globe, and their formation in Maritime Tropical air masses. The noun "cyclone" refers to such storms' cyclonic nature, with counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise rotation in the Southern Hemisphere. Depending on their location and strength, tropical cyclones are referred to by various other names, such as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, and tropical depression.